A DAY AFTER the Green Bay Packers won the Lombardi Trophy in February, I felt they had a strong chance to repeat as NFL champions in 2011.
The 2010 Packers were one of the youngest, deepest teams in the NFL, and they figure to become deeper with the return of six starters off injured reserve. Green Bay also returns a franchise quarterback and a top-five defense.
Five months later, I feel the Pack’s chances for back-to-back titles are even stronger.
Since the NFL went to the eight-division format in 2002, life has not been good for incumbents. An average of 4.9 of the eight division champions each season have failed to repeat. Three of the past eight Super Bowl winners failed to qualify for the playoffs the following season.
But I love the incumbents in 2011. I like the Packers to play for another championship next February in Indianapolis. I like the Patriots and Steelers in their divisions. I like the Saints to extend their season into January. Status quo looms as a major plus this season.
That’s because there wasn’t an offseason. The NFL lockout shut down all 32 buildings, slowing down the rebuilding and reloading process for the 31 non-winners.
The offseason is an important time in the NFL. Teams are allowed up to 14 organized team activity sessions, plus two minicamps, one for rookies and another for veterans. Teams with new coaching staffs are allowed an extra minicamp.
Add it all up, and that is 24 to 29 practice sessions a team is allowed to conduct during the offseason. But those practice sessions did not take place this offseason because of the labor stalemate.
So, there are six new coaches in 2011 who have not handed out their playbooks. Those coaches must start from scratch in training camp, indoctrinating unfamiliar players to unfamiliar coaches with unfamiliar schemes.
Thirteen other teams have new defensive coordinators, and 11 have new offensive coordinators. They don’t know the players, and the players don’t know them or their coaching styles.
If teams report to training camp by Aug. 1, that leaves six weeks to prepare for the season opener. When you factor in the four preseason games each team plays, practice time will be at a premium. There will not be enough hours in training camp to achieve all that a team needs to achieve next month. So expect some ragged play in September.
This brings us back to Green Bay and its fellow incumbents.
Five of the eight division champions — Atlanta, Chicago, Indianapolis, New England and Pittsburgh — return with the coach and coordinators intact. In addition to the Packers, two of the other three wild-card teams from a year ago — the Jets and Saints — also return with the same coaching brain trust.
So those teams will not spend camp teaching something new. They will spend it refining and polishing an already proven, successful product. That will give them a huge edge heading into the 2011 season.
I’ve always been a sucker for the underdogs. But this is one year to bet the favorites.
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